Godzilla: King of the Monsters Early Box Office Predictions

G. H. (Gman)

Box Office Pro is the first website to give a long range prediction of Godzilla: King of the Monsters.

Its forecast for the movie includes a range of $40-60 million for the opening weekend. They predict the movie will open with $46 million and finish with a domestic total of $110 million.

If those numbers seem a little low, I tend to agree. I predict these forecasts will go up as we get closer to the release date and tickets finally go on sale.

I find it difficult to believe the industry can accurately calculate these numbers without ticket pre-sales, but I suppose they've found a model to predict this somewhere. In any case, Box Office Pro's long range forecasts haven't been more (or less) off than $10 million this year. So they have some modi*** of viability.

For comparison Godzilla '14 opened with $93.1 million for the weekend and finished with a domestic total of $200.6 million. ($529 million world wide total.)

Kong: Skull Island opened with $61 million for the weekend and finished with a domestic total of $168 million. ($566.6 million world wide total.)

I have a hard time believing Godzilla: King of the Monsters will open with less than Skull Island, but the fact is May is a very aggressive month for movies. We'll see how things change in the coming weeks.

Patzilla

I see a lot of people wanting to see this movie, people that don't usually watch monster movies. This tells me that quite a lot of people will go just to check it out even if they haven't seen G14.

Godzillatheking123

The movie might go in to the red for the studio if those numbers are accurate, given the large budget estimates. Yeah, there are the international markets which the studio would pin their hopes on. But if it fails in the home market, then it would have already stumbled out of the starting gate, something the studio does not want to see of course.

I agree with Patzilla, I think there is significant hype generated for this movie and the demand to see it is getting stronger, so hopefully the box office estimate will go upwards. At least that is what I hope.

Gmkgoji

I think that Godzilla king of the monsters will make anywhere from 500 million-700 million

TheGMan123

Maybe the success of Aquaman could sway things. That one was highly successful for being part of the DCEU.

Maybe it's indicative of the market being ready to partake in WB's films so long as they showcase colour and style.

G. H. (Gman)

It's a concerning figure, especially considering the future of the Monsterverse clearly rests on the shoulders of this and GvK.

Hopefully it's off, but we'll see...

Godzillatheking123

It's going to so better. I need to rely on more than one source to have a guess at the box office.

G. H. (Gman)

Fair point actually. I'm sniffing around for more sources.

Gmkgoji

Godzilla king of the monster's budget happens to be 200 million dollars. It's marketing budget is 100-150 million. so, at minimum, Godzilla king of the monsters needs to make at least 350-400 million to make a profit.

G. H. (Gman)

The Hollywood Reporter, Variety and Forbes are all reporting that Godzilla: King of the Monsters is tracking for a $50-55 million opening weekend. A far cry from the $90+ million of the first movie and Skull Island's $61 million debut.

Each of these sources claim that number could rise in the coming weeks due to one last marketing push.

KoldWarKid62

I've seen that as well. Mind boggling. That's a shame. Without seeing a minute of the actual movie, I've enjoyed what I've seen in the the trailers more than I did the whole damn movie in 2014. If this doesn't perform well, quite honestly I blame the first one and the five year wait. I'm hoping momentum picks up.

G. H. (Gman)

This is some of the most disheartening data yet. According to Box Office Pro Godzilla is simply not trending as well as other movies on social media. It did not crack the top 5 trending unreleased movies on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook. Instead movies much further out are trending better, with the exception of John Wick and Aladdin. Spider-Man: Far From Home seems to be winning this one.

Seems there's just not much hype for the movie outside the rabid fanbase.

You can see the data here.

Godzillatheking123

Well, I guess Warner and Legendary better improve their marketing pronto.

Godzillatheking123

Of course, before you all write off this movie as a box office failure, let's see how it actually do. And there is always the international box office...

TheGMan123

The fact that the movie is opening in China on the same day as the rest of the world might help things out.

As well, WB has had a good track record recently with surprise successes. Pretty sure NO ONE expected Aquaman to do as well as it did given the box office tracking and DCEU's franchise history.

G. H. (Gman)

Members of Box Office Theory are allegedly saying that the movie is doing respectable numbers in pre-sales. Should any of this be true, we could potentially be looking at a $60 million+ opening, but no one's sharing this data, so the source relies completely on hearsay. I'd say it's likely though.

Some reliable voices on the site are also talking about the Chinese box office opening weekend being $65 million, which is encouraging. The 2014 movie made a total of $77 million in China. Skull Island made $168 million total in China.