Shin Kamen Rider / Gridman Universe [Japanese] Box Office Watch (3/31/23)

SHIN KAMEN RIDER:
Japanese Box Office (as of 4/9/2023): 1.5 Billion Yen ($11.6 Million ~estimated~)

Japanese Box Office Attendance (as of 4/9/2023): 1.01 Million

GRIDMAN UNIVERSE:
Japanese Box Office (as of 4/9/2023): 334.9 Million Yen ($2.5 million ~estimated~)

Japanese Box Office Attendance (as of 4/9/2023): 231,083

UPDATE 4/9/2023:
Last week Shin Kamen Rider fell to 5th place in its 3rd weekend in theaters. It's not exactly looking great for the latest SJHU flick which now sits at 1.5 Billion Yen ($11.6 Million ~estimated~). In terms of third weekend draws from similar franchise films, it's trailing behind both the Monsterverse and SJHU, with the exception of Godzilla vs. Kong, which bombed in 2021. Its attendance has crossed 1 million with 1,008,634 admits.

Gridman Universe continues to bomb in its second weekend as it drops from a 5th place opening to 8th with only 334.9 Million Yen ($2.5 million ~estimated~) and only 231,083 admits. If it drops out of the top 10 and never hits 500 million Yen, it will be next to impossible to know what its final gross/attendance is unless reported by the studio. The good news is it will beat each of Polygon's Godzilla movies--which isn't a high bar and were only in theaters for 4-6 weeks before being released to Netflix. (Box Office Theory via Kogyotsushin)

3rd Weekend Comparisons:

Shin Godzilla:
3.36 Billion Yen/$32.6 Million/>2.59M attendance
Shin Ultraman:
2.69 Billion Yen/$21.2 Million/1.77M attendance
Godzilla: King of the Monsters:
2.21 Billion Yen/$20.5 Million/1.51M attendance
Godzilla 2014:
2.05 Billion Yen/$20.1 Million/1.42M attendance
Shin Kamen Rider:
1.5 Billion Yen/$11.6 Million/1.01M attendance
Godzilla vs. Kong:
1.4 Billion Yen/$12.9 Million/0.90M attendance

UPDATE 3/31/2023:
Sort of difficult to say what happened last weekend as my usual translated sources didn't deliver. According to Kogyotsushin Shin Kamen Rider only fell to 3rd place to earn an estimated total of 1.14 Billion Yen. ($8.7 million estimated) (Pixiin) The estimated attendance sits around 728,000.

Also Gridman Universe opened #5 for the weekend. It earned and estimated 160 Million Yen ($1.2 million estimated) with, again as an estimate, 102,000 in attendance. (Pixiin) I don't expect the movie to stay in the top 10 for long. It opened to 151 theaters which is only 51 above limited release numbers.

Posting charts because this is the most info we had, even though it's not confirmed actuals.

UPDATE 3/25/2023:
Last weekends official numbers came late. Shin Kamen Rider finished at #2 for the weekend behind My Happy Marriage with 541.9 Million Yen ($4.1 Million). A little lower than previously reported. The weekend attendance was 345,446, already surpassing recent genre finale numbers such as the Polygon Godzilla Anime Trilogy (which didn't have nearly the number of theaters as Shin Kamen Rider) and Rampage. (Box Office Theory via Kogyotsushin, Pixiin)

No word on how it's been doing over the week other than it has remained in the top 3 at the box office. Numbers for the second weekend should be out soon. Charts for the opening weekend are up.

Orignal Post:
While not strictly a kaiju flick, Shin Kamen Rider is still tokusatsu that has ties with the Shin Japan Heroes Universe. Anno directed and wrote the film, so comparisons to Shin Godzilla and Shin Ultraman are inevitable.

Shin Kamen Rider opened wide on March 18th, 2023 to 374 theaters. (World of KJ) However, it had preview screenings on Friday, March 17th, starting at 6PM. The romance, My Happy Marriage, released officially on that same Friday and had a head start on Shin Kamen Rider. (World of KJ)

So on Friday, Shin Kamen Rider grossed 125 Million Yen (just under $950K-$1M) for preview screenings that started at 6PM. (Eiga Ranking News) For comparison, Shin Ultraman's Friday gross was 263 Million Yen--But it had a full day of screenings, unlike Shin Kamen Rider.

The full weekend estimate puts it at 555 Million Yen. It was #1 for the two day weekend (Saturday and Sunday), but couldn't close the gap to first place for the three day weekend. (Eiga Ranking News) My Happy Marriage was #1 on Friday, and the three day weekend, as it was very front loaded. For comparison with Shin Ultraman: The prior SJHU film grossed 625 Million Yen over two days and 998 Million Yen for the three day weekend.

Shin Kamen Rider faced heavy competition against My Happy Marriage, a romance, which is a popular genre in Japan. Shin Kamen Rider's PG-12 rating doesn't help audience count either, as the last two SJHU films and Monsterverse Godzilla flicks were all rated G in Japan. (EIRN JP) Shin Kamen Rider's average ticket price is said to be higher, however, so its gross could make up for its attendance.

The official numbers and rankings should be confirmed in a few days.

Comparison:
Shin Kamen Rider (2023)
- Theaters (at opening): 374
- Opening weekend: 541.9 Million Yen ($4.1 Million)
- TOTAL GROSS: TBD
- TOTAL ATTENDANCE: TBD

Top Films of the Last 10 Years Lists:

Godzilla Series Attendance List:

Godzilla Series & Recent Kaiju Films Attendance List:

How to gauge success based on attendance:
1 million or under - Flop
1 million+ - Flop-to-Disappointment
2 million+ - Minor Commercial Success-to-Minor Hit
3 million+ - Major Hit
4 million+ - Blockbuster
5 million+ - Uber-Blockbuster