Godzilla Minus One [Japanese] Box Office Watch (11/22/2023)

G. H. (Gman)

Japanese Box Office (as of 11/19/2023): 2.85 Billion Yen (~$19.0 Million)

Japanese Box Office Attendance (as of 11/19/2023): 1,840,354

11/22/2023:
Godzilla Minus One retained its #1 spot for its third weekend in a row at the box office. Its total gross after Sunday was 2.85 Billion Yen (~$19 Million). Attendance reached 1,840,354. It is expected to surpass 3.00 Billion Yen before the end of the week. (Eiga Ranking, Toho)

Third weekend comparisons:
Shin Godzilla:
3.36 Billion Yen/$32.6 Million/>2.59M attendance
Godzilla Minus One:
2.85 Billion Yen/$18.9 Million/~1.84M attendance
Shin Ultraman:
2.69 Billion Yen/$21.2 Million/1.77M attendance
Godzilla: King of the Monsters:
2.21 Billion Yen/$20.5 Million/1.51M attendance
Godzilla 2014:
2.05 Billion Yen/$20.1 Million/1.42M attendance
Godzilla vs. Kong:
1.4 Billion Yen/$12.9 Million/0.90M attendance

Charts now include how many days each movie was tracked in theaters.

11/16/2023:
Weekend actuals for Godzilla Minus One were updated and the numbers are even higher than originally estimated. The actual total after last weekend now sits at 2.112 Billion Yen ($14.1 Million). The attendance number sits at 1,352,125. As of last weekend Godzilla Minus One only trails Shin Godzilla's second weekend by 38 Million Yen. (Kogyotsushin, SciFi Japan, Yahoo! Japan)

Minus One's 2nd weekend trails Shin Kamen Rider's final gross by 220,000 Yen and its attendance by less than 240,000 tickets. 

(As of Wednesday, 11/16/2023, Minus One has already passed Shin Kamen Rider's gross and its attendance sits at 1.51 million--which will most assuredly pass Shin Kamen Rider's attendance this weekend. However, the updated charts will only reflect this past weekend.) (Eiga Ranking)

Minus One will likely surpass 2 million in attendance sometime next week. Charts have been updated to reflect the second weekend actuals.

11/12/2023:
Godzilla Minus One wrapped the second weekend with an estimated 2.096 Billion Yen. ($13.3 Million) Lagging only ¥0.054 behind Shin Godzilla after 10 days of release. It has already surpassed the final gross of Godzilla vs. Kong and Kong: Skull Island. It should pass Shin Kamen Rider's final gross sometime next week.

Its estimated attendance sits at 1,307,132. It has already beaten the final attendance of Millennium flops, Godzilla: Final Wars and Godzilla: Tokyo S.O.S. It has additionally topped the final attendance of Godzilla vs. Kong.

Its Saturday/Sunday drop was only around 30%. Charts have been updated. Actuals later. (Eiga Ranking News)

11/09/2023:
Minus One raked in another 100 million yesterday, still outpacing Shin Godzilla with a total of 1.556 Billion Yen. (Roughly $10.3 Million.) It sits barely under 1 million in attendance with an estimated 970,371. This weekend will be very telling in regards to how far it will go. (Eiga Ranking News)

11/08/2023:
As of today, Godzilla Minus One has hit 1.456 Billion. (Roughly $9.65 Million) Its attendance is at an estimated 908,008. It should hit 1 Million in attendance tomorrow as I predicted, and will most certainly break 1.5 Billion. It's setting itself up to surpass 2 Billion this weekend. (Eiga Ranking News)

Original Post:
Godzilla Minus One has been released in the somewhat daring month of November--Daring in that schools have not been let out and, traditionally, the Godzilla films in recent years, and during the Millennium and Heisei series, were during seasons where school is out. That hasn't hurt it too much so far.

Godzilla Minus One has had the largest opening day of any of the Reiwa or Monsterverse movies in Japan with a massive 1.04 Billion Yen ($6.9 Million). This is the first time a Godzilla movie has broken 1 Billion in its opening weekend. (Eiga Ranking) The opening day was very frontloaded due to being a national holiday in Japan. (The Japan Times) However, Godzilla Minus One is currently the best-reviewed Godzilla film in Japan, pointing to strong legs.

Japan's most successful movie of the era was Shin Godzilla, which opened to 845,675,500 Yen ($8.2 Million) for the weekend and finished with a staggering 8.25 Billion Yen ($79.2 Million). The biggest opening before Minus One was Godzilla: King of the Monsters, which opened to 918,860,100 Yen ($8.6 Million) but only finished with 2.84 Billion ($25.8 Million).*

Minus One also had the biggest Japanese IMAX opening of all time for a live-action film. (The distinction from animation is important—animated films are the biggest box office winners in Japan each year.) Over 180,000,000 Yen ($1.2 Million) of Minus One’s opening weekend gross came from IMAX screens. (Collider)

Opening weekend attendance comes 648,577—the biggest audience draw of the Reiwa/Monsterverse era. It beat Godzilla: King of the Monsters by 6,804 tickets and Shin Godzilla by 84,245 tickets.

Additionally, Godzilla Minus One hit #8 in the worldwide box office. A Japanese Godzilla film making it into the top 10 worldwide box office is a massive win for Toho. (Comscore)

*To those confused as to why Shin Godzilla and Godzilla: King of the Monsters opening weekends exchanged to a higher USD gross than Godzilla Minus One, it’s because the Yen is much weaker today than it was in 2016 and 2019. In 2016 Godzilla Minus One’s 1.04 Billion would’ve translated to $9.8 Million. In 2023, Shin Godzilla’s 845,675,500 would’ve been $5.7 Million and King of the Monsters would have exchanged to $6.2 Million. For comparison, the chart below gives the USD exchange of what these older movies would be in 2023.

OPENING DAY COMPARISON
1) Godzilla Minus One - 455,000,000 Yen ($3.05M in 2023)
2) Godzilla: King of the Monsters - 241,905,100 Yen ($2.2M in 2019, $1.61M in 2023)
3) Shin Godzilla - 221,064,800 Yen ($2.11M in 2016, $1.48M in 2023)
4) Godzilla '14 - 175,033,800 Yen ($1.70M in 2014, $1.17M in 2023)
5) Godzilla vs. Kong - 154,674,750 Yen ($1.4M in 2021, $1.04M in 2023)
6) Godzilla: Planet of the Monsters - 41,362,500 Yen ($382,000 in 2017, $276,900 in 2023)
7) Godzilla: The Planet Eater - 31,783,700 Yen ($270,000 in 2018, $212,778 in 2023)
8) Godzilla: City on the Edge of Battle - 25,000,000 Yen ($225,000 in 2018, $167,360 in 2023)

How to gauge success based on attendance:
1 million or under - Flop
1 million+ - Disappointment
2 million+ - Minor or Commercial Success
3 million+ - Major Hit
4 million+ - Blockbuster
5 million+ - Uber-Blockbuster

Chris

Thanks for the updates! I had no doubts Minus One would perform well, but I am impressed by how well it's doing. Makes me happy to see Godzilla still captivates audiences on such a large scale.

G. H. (Gman)

11/12/2023:
Godzilla Minus One wrapped the second weekend with an estimated 2.096 Billion Yen. ($13.3 Million) Lagging only ¥0.054 behind Shin Godzilla after 10 days of release. It has already surpassed the final gross of Godzilla vs. Kong and Kong: Skull Island. It should pass Shin Kamen Rider's final gross sometime next week.

Its estimated attendance sits at 1,307,132. It has already beaten the final attendance of Millennium flops, Godzilla: Final Wars and Godzilla: Tokyo S.O.S. It has additionally topped the final attendance of Godzilla vs. Kong.

Its Saturday/Sunday drop was only around 30%. Charts have been updated. Actuals later.

G. H. (Gman)

11/16/2023:
Weekend actuals for Godzilla Minus One were updated and the numbers are even higher than originally estimated. The actual total after last weekend now sits at 2.112 Billion Yen ($14.1 Million). The attendance number sits at 1,352,125. As of last weekend Godzilla Minus One only trails Shin Godzilla's second weekend by 38 Million Yen. (Kogyotsushin, SciFi Japan)

Minus One's 2nd weekend trails Shin Kamen Rider's final gross by 220,000 Yen and its attendance by less than 240,000 tickets. 

(As of Wednesday, 11/16/2023, Minus One has already passed Shin Kamen Rider's gross and its attendance sits at 1.51 million--which will most assuredly pass Shin Kamen Rider's attendance this weekend. However, the updated charts will only reflect this past weekend.) (Eiga Ranking)

Minus One will likely surpass 2 million in attendance sometime next week. Charts have been updated to reflect the second weekend actuals.

G. H. (Gman)

11/22/2023:
Godzilla Minus One retained its #1 spot for its third weekend in a row at the box office. Its total gross after Sunday was 2.85 Billion Yen (~$19 Million). Attendance reached 1,840,354. It is expected to surpass 3.00 Billion Yen before the end of the week. (Eiga Ranking, Toho)

Third weekend comparisons:
Shin Godzilla:
3.36 Billion Yen/$32.6 Million/>2.59M attendance
Godzilla Minus One:
2.85 Billion Yen/$18.9 Million/~1.84M attendance
Shin Ultraman:
2.69 Billion Yen/$21.2 Million/1.77M attendance
Godzilla: King of the Monsters:
2.21 Billion Yen/$20.5 Million/1.51M attendance
Godzilla 2014:
2.05 Billion Yen/$20.1 Million/1.42M attendance
Godzilla vs. Kong:
1.4 Billion Yen/$12.9 Million/0.90M attendance

Charts now include how many days each movie was tracked in theaters.