KOTM not a flop?3,375 Views19 RepliesAdd A Reply
Despite the media proclaiming KOTM a flop or bomb, is it really? Mr H begs to differ. Now youtube folks, some are good, some are not that great and some just mouth off mindless drivel. But Mr H is not one of those morons. His arguments tend to be well-reasoned and persuasive. I don't always agree with him mind you, but his argument here about KOTM not being a flop deserves to be listened to:
Youtube video aside, I still think it's a little too early to say one way or another.
Looking long term: When compared to other, similar, big budget, "dumb-but-fun" monster movies of the last several years I could see why it might be remembered as a bomb.
The fact is this movie has "Godzilla" in the title--It really should be leading the charge of these giant monster movies. But now there's a very real possibility it won't hit the world wide gross of inferior, throwaway flicks like The Meg and Rampage. And even those were only considered "modest" successes by studios and pundits.
If KotM finishes behind those movies, that's really embarrassing. Hopefully it can at least reach Pacific Rim's gross...
G. H. (Gman): I don't think what is considered "embarrassing" is for us to decide, it's ultimately what the studio decides. And as MR H indicates, this is more like a Chinese co-production (Legendary), so they will keep the bulk of the revenue in the Chinese box office.
I think claiming only studios can decide what's "embarrassing" really deflects the issue: Far lesser movies, based on far less iconic material, may in fact gross more than a movie with a massive legacy to its name. Godzilla's name should carry some sort of draw--At least a draw greater than a niche video game and semi-popular novel. The fact it hasn't had the same momentum is pretty embarrassing.
Now, while it's true Legendary may get more out of the Chinese market because they're owned by Wanda - who controls massive theater chains in both China and America (AMC) - there's been no official word on that for this production. In fact, everything about the Yahoo article (which you can just read on you're own - we really don't need a youtuber to do it for us) is unofficial. No one from Legendary actually came out and said they weren't worried--This is all coming from analysts and undisclosed sources. So we're not sure how Legendary feels outside of extrapolating Toby Emmerich's comment about pushing back GvK. (And even he isn't necessarily in charge of Legendary.)
Additionally, the Chinese box office take for Godzilla is, unfortunately, slowing. Movies in the market are very front loaded and the life cycle for foreign films in China is about 3-4 weeks--Godzilla is tracking $48M behind Skull Island's final Chinese take of $168M. Once the Chinese run is finished we'll be seeing far less revenue world wide.
Even Japan, where it has been pretty successful, has had to check its initial $40M prediction. It may have to crawl past $30M--Barely beating 2014.
I think it's pretty clear what's embarrassing if you have 1 of if not the premier giant monster name behind your film and throw aways from books like the meg, or dead video game franchises like Rampage outgross you. Studios buy characters for marquee value if the return on that can be made by less known or iconic things there's no point in buying that name. No one likes making sequels and seeing continuous lower returns which is the clear case with the monsterverse thus far, and when they dump almost 200mil(not counting money spend on advertisement) into a movie and see a 300mil total that's not a reassuring number.
Godzillatheking123: No, I disagree. Seems strange we somehow know better than the studio whether a film is a flop or not. It's the bottom line that counts for them, not how it compares to other allegedly similar movies.
I don't think the film will be a flop as far as actual technical flops go, but it's certainly not looking to be a financial success story.
Unfortunate, but at least we can put that behind us and focus on the future.
When I see videos like that, it shows me just how in denial this fandom is.
D Man also put out a video like this, but he's always a reliable source.
Basically, whilst not great, the film likely won't "flop" as in actually fail to turn a profit. According to him, it's already done better than the 2 Pacific Rim movies in the same amount of time.
I mean in doing my part. Just got back from seeing it my 6th time.
King and Queen of The Skies.........
"No, I disagree. Seems strange we somehow know better than the studio whether a film is a flop or not. It's the bottom line that counts for them, not how it compares to other allegedly similar movies."
How it compares to similar movies should be pretty obvious. There's no precedence for the studio to have the final word on that. Be honest, do you not find it the least bit concerning that two movies based on a passing novel and dead video game franchise are likely to do better?
As for who decides what is and isn't a flop--The problem with this thinking is perception. The studio may be happy with profits, but that doesn't guarantee the perception that it was a success. The way audiences and media perceive a movie is what studios notice and studios act on those perceptions. This happened the first time with Godzilla in 1998:
“The movie made $375 million worldwide, and THE PERFECT STORM made $325 million. Also, GODZILLA made a billion dollars in merchandise. Sony Pictures was happy with what they got. They knew that because of the media reception, they couldn’t do a GODZILLA 2." - Roland Emmerich [Source]
The same thing happened with Transformers: The Last Knight. For the longest time, the Transformers movies were making so much money that negative perception didn't matter. The Last Knight didn't remotely flop, but it made a significant amount less than its predecessors. Coupled with the negative reaction from audiences and media, this forced Paramount to halt their "Hasbro universe" plans with G.I. Joe.
So while a studio or production company can reap the benefits of a production that's poorly received, it is historically media and audience perception that discerns a flop. Godzilla '98, was not a financial flop, but it's constantly cited as one. Notice we have no sequel to it.
Oh man, it's killing me.
When the dust has settled, this movie may very well be considered a financial failure, or a "flop". It's not in my eyes. I think the right director made it. He did so many things right, and has a love and respect for the source material and characters. I wish he had done the first one. Don't get me going on the damn soundtrack, other than McCreary killed it. Does the movie have its weaknesses? Absolutely. I liked the characters; they were interesting. I would have liked to get to know them better. I think another 20-30 minutes would have served this movie well. Same holds true for the Oxygen Destroyer. Instead of a quick, "We've developed this new weapon, the Oxygen Destroyer. It'll be there in 30 seconds so you better get out of dodge", I would have liked a bit more exposition about that weapon. It was a very cool addition, but let's find out a bit more about it, what it does, why they would ever think of using it, etc.
My personal opinions about why it's struggled:
I think G2014 hurt this movie. G-fans were always going to go out and support/watch it. The general movie-going audience stayed away. I think many were put off by 2014 and skipped this as a result.
The five year wait didn't help.
Timing is everything. The original March release probably would have been a bit better.
The reviews obviously didn't do it any favors.
It's a shame, because I love this movie. I think Dougherty did a fabulous job with this, the soundtrack absolutely rocks (and I liked Desplat's 2014 soundtrack), and it was a shitload of fun. I've seen it twice and I'd love to see it again. I'd love to see him release an extended cut. I also want more Rodan and definitely more Mothra. Hoping GVsK can pick up the slack, because I'd love to see more of this world.
The big difference here is that the fans like KOTM. Fans hated 1998 and the last two Michael Bay Transformers. So while KOTM might not be a huge financial success, it has not pissed off the fandom at large and the fans want more.
Godzillatheking123: No, I still l don't buy your argument. What is ultimately the thing that really matters for the studio is whether they can turn a profit in a movie, not whether the perception of it being a flop or not.
The last transformers movie was different, because the audience grew tired of it as well, whereas before, the series teflon-like in resisting bad critical reviews. But here, Godzilla KOTM received good audience reviews.
And it seems premature we are saying the monsterverse is over. We don't know that yet.
macumbalove: We get it, you hate the monsterverse. What else are you on here for?
Fans liking the movie does not ensure anything at all. The general audience is divided and the fan base at large is still very niche. Respective fans of Serenity, Power Rangers '17, Scott Pilgram vs. The World, Speed Racer, etc, generally loved those films. But they either flopped, divided general audiences or both. It's great that the fanbase loves it, but historically that's not enough.
I'm not sure what to tell you if you're not going to listen to facts and what's been historically true. The fact is studios rarely, if ever, come out and admit if something is or is not a flop. It then lays at the feet of media outlets and audiences to determine if it was or was not successful based on numbers and reception. We could just as easily say Godzilla '14 was not confirmed to be successful, because the studio never said it was.
We can also cherry pick that "Transformers was different," but the fact is both it and Godzilla got weak critical reviews. So did Godzilla '98. Fans may like King of the Monsters more, but as I explained to The Realist, that doesn't guarantee anything.
And finally no one in this specific thread has said, "the Monsterverse is over," so I don't understand why you're trying to persuade otherwise. But since you broached the topic, I will say that given the numbers we're looking at, the odds aren't necessarily in its favor either.
Unlike 1998, Serenity, and all those other franchises you mentioned above, we are guaranteed a sequel with GvK already filmed. This franchise has one more chance to live with arguably its best shot with general audiences. If GvK underperforms then its over. The monsterverse really lives and dies with that film, not KOTM.
That's probably the most fair assessment I've heard. But I think it's really going to have to knock it out of the park in order to pick up the slack from King of the Monsters. We can't be counting pennies and dimes like we are this year with it.
Of course I wonder GMan, since you yourself don't like KOTM, I wonder if that influenced on how you see the success of failure of the movie. Sounds like bias creeping in there. Be honest.
I don't care for the movie, this is true. But when top industry pundits with direct lines to the studios are calling it a flop 2 years later, I think what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
In any case, one can flip the argument. If you liked the movie, I can just as easily "detect" bias in wanting to believe it didn't flop. Bias comes in all forms.